pick a report
balance
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equity at session start missing
- today pnl
- -
- wins / losses
- -
- open
- -
- trades
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since 00:00 UTC
win rate -
-
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Live flow
checked -Trade
-no trades yet. most leads end as a pass; that is the system working.
tail -f ledger.log
0 linesOpen positions
-| market | side | size | avg entry | mark | unrealized | age | strategy | exit rule armed |
|---|
Closed trades
-| market | side | strategy | entry | exit | pnl | hold | exit rule | reason |
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Result start vs now
-Log
LOGGER -
| time | kind | event | value |
|---|
Open positions
-| market | side | size | avg entry | mark | unrealized | age | strategy | exit rule armed |
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Closed trades
-| market | side | strategy | entry | exit | pnl | hold | exit rule | reason |
|---|
Promotions and demotions
lifecycle rows, newest first| time | strategy | change | reason |
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Smart-money watchlist
80+ copy, 60-79 reduced, 40-59 watch| # | wallet | score | tier | leaderboard pnl | stats | flags | ineligible because |
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Whale cells
-Where profiled conviction buyers and market makers made money, net of a taker fee: market category, entry price and time to resolution when they bought. A cell with n of 30+ and a 95% CI above zero opens a hypothesis card for the desk arm it maps to; the desk then tests it on its own shadow trades.
| style | category | entry | to resolution | n | wallets | mean ROI | 95% CI | desk arm |
|---|
Wallet styles
-What top wallets do, not what to copy: where they enter, how long they hold and what they win. One style per wallet from a fixed vocabulary; confidence grows with the number of resolved positions.
How the desk learns
every step is a ledger rowStrategy lifecycle
SHADOW -> PROBATION -> SCALED, RETIRED is finalWhy they died
best - / worst -Calibration
-A forecast of 0.80 should win about 80% of the time. Each row compares what the desk said with what happened.
| strategy | bucket | n | forecast | realized | brier | net pnl |
|---|
Closing-line value
-S5 buys against a devigged Pinnacle fair. CLV is the Pinnacle close at match start minus the price paid: positive means the desk bought cheaper than the market's final estimate.
| strategy | sport | n | mean CLV | yield | beat close | missing | pending |
|---|
Lessons
n, effect, 95% CIPriors
-| key | value | lesson |
|---|